UK universities face financial turmoil as figures from the Home Office show plunging numbers of international students applying for courses starting in the next academic year.

Applications for sponsored study visas have fallen by 28%, suggesting the visa restrictions applied by the previous government continue to hamper recruitment. The Home Office received 28,200 applications last month, compared with 38,900 in June 2023.

Most student visa applications are received over the summer, leaving many universities hoping that things will improve by September. But more recent data shown to the Guardian suggests the sector will continue to struggle.

Enroly, a service used by international students for managing university enrolments, said data from 31 UK universities showed falls of 41% in deposits and acceptances by international students up to the end of July

The fall was particularly high in postgraduate taught master’s courses, down by 55% compared with 2023, according to Enroly, while undergraduate numbers were down by 23%.

Since January, international students taking taught postgraduate courses or undergraduate degrees have been unable to bring family members or dependents on a student visa.

Jeff Williams, Enroly’s chief executive, said the latest data showed that international student recruitment for September had been on a downward trend since the start of the year.

“Our UK university colleagues are working tirelessly to continue to attract international students to their programmes. One positive note is that the intake appears to be catching up month-to-month from a very slow start. It remains to be seen where the final year-on-year numbers for September will land,” Williams said.

In 2021-22 there were more than 240,000 full-time international students starting taught postgraduate courses, and 104,000 undergraduates. If Enroly’s figures are representative of the sector, about 150,000 fewer international students would arrive on UK campuses this autumn.

With many universities reliant on the income from international tuition fees, and tuition fees for UK students remaining frozen in England, experts warned the combination spelled trouble for the sector.

Mark Corver, the chief executive of DataHE, a higher education consultancy, said the reliance on international student fees was a symptom of the previous government’s failure to increase domestic tuition fees from £9,250 for nearly eight years.

“That’s caused a huge financial distortion that has driven universities to raise income by other means,” Corver said.

Corver said August’s A-level results would be crucial for the financial health of universities. If better exam grades encourage more school leavers to go to university, that would offset the expected losses from international students.